I've Been Waiting for This

Finally... a reality-based take on the economic costs of "fixing" climate change, and, thus, the political infeasibility of doing anything significant any time soon. It's literally this simple: people want a cause, and climate change fits nicely because everyone is to blame, and everyone can contribute in some small way to lessen the effect (by putting in flourescent light bulbs or planting trees). But real, actual, meaningful changes -- the sort that will have any noticeable effect on climate change -- wouldn't get 10% of the vote in a referendum. People want a cause, but they also want that cause to come free-of-charge, or mostly so. But this stuff is all about trade-offs, and I don't know anybody who would sacrifice as much of their own economic well-being as would be required to "fix" the problem. People have a need to DO SOMETHING NOW about big problems; they don't have a need to truly examine the costs of solutions, or the true effects of their piddling actions. One square of toilet paper isn't going to save us. It will take massive economic sacrifices. Our legislators realize this, which is why nobody talks in specifics on this issue. This is why Kyoto got rejected (and hasn't been lived up to by a single one of its signatories).

The Stern Report estimated that at least 1% of world economic output would have to be sacrificed each year for about 100 years in order to combat climate change in a meaningful way. Doesn't sound like much? If, from 1870 to 1990, the U.S. had a 1% lower growth rate, we would be about as wealthy as Mexico today. That's a lot of economic growth being sacrificed over the next 3-4 generations.

Not only that, but that assumes that every country in the world is willing to get on board. Of course that isn't going to happen, so the richer West will have to shoulder even more of the burden to get the same amount of change. There's no point in sacrificing 1% of economic output if the rest of the world doesn't, and climage change continues unabated.

"Fixing" climate change has very real costs. Costs which nobody is willing to bear.